“By replacing fear of the unknown with curiosity we open ourselves up to an infinite stream of possibility. We can let fear rule our lives or we can become childlike with curiosity, pushing our boundaries, leaping out of our comfort zones, and accepting what life puts before us” – Alan Watts
What will 2024 bring? Well, as always, likely some good, some bad and plenty in-between. The bigger question though is less about what will the year bring and more about what will we bring to it as leaders? The emphasis being less about what the world around us is doing, and more about our own approach and attitude towards it.
As a new year begins, many of us enjoy a spot of horizon scanning. It feels like the most suitable point in time to pause; reflecting back and projecting forwards as we do so. In fact, all the messaging surrounding us once Christmas concludes is focused on encouraging us to make a ‘new start’ or to sign up to a ‘new resolution’. The implication being of course, that we need to constantly change or reinvent things. When was the last time you saw a new year message that said ‘you are fine as you are, keep going’?!
That’s not, of course, to say this opportunity to stop, reflect and think ahead is wrong. Quite the opposite, in fact. As strategic leaders in particular, it is a necessity. But rather than considering what might need to change, what if we focused instead on what might need to stay the same? Indeed, this very concept is one reflected on at length in a newly published book I am reading called ‘Same as Ever’ by Morgan Housel. As Housel so articulately puts it:
“Knowledge of the things that never change is more useful, and more important, than an uncertain prediction of an unknowable future.”
So, if this is true, when thinking ahead to 2024, perhaps we should consider in this article what will continue to be required of us as trust leaders in the year(s) ahead.
Linked to this, we also cannot escape the inevitability of having to work within a national context that has already been, and will likely become even more turbulent and unclear before the year is out. So, as leaders, how will we embody stability, continuity, and unwavering support for those we work with and serve?
The more things change, the more they stay the same
As Housel and many others have often said, whilst on the surface the world is frequently shifting, advancing and changing, the fundamentals underpinning it have stayed pretty constant. Education is a good example of this. Have we seen some significant changes over the last decade or more? Yes. Have our reasons and motivations, or the core principles of what it means to lead great learning organisations, changed as a result of this? No. Regardless of the models we draw upon, the methods we use across our system, or the politics that underpin the decisions made about ‘direction of travel’, we all still work in education to serve children and young people as best we can and to give them the best possible start in life with the resources that we have. This is something that will never change.
“Have we seen some significant changes over the last decade or more? Yes. Have our reasons and motivations, or the core principles of what it means to lead great learning organisations, changed as a result of this? No.”
And so, even though the year ahead may be choppy, it’s worth beginning with the premise that there are still several ‘known constants’ that as trust leaders, you will remain focused on that politics and economics may undoubtedly affect but ultimately, won’t deter you from. Reading our recent #BeingTheCEO report 2023 and listening to you all across our network through visits, events and interviews, we know the big things we need to get right in 2024 will change little from 2023 – despite the potential political change and uncertainty around us. These include:
Being an employer of choice: We know we face some significant ongoing recruitment and retention issues system wide. The latest ITT targets again showing a huge shortfall, school leaders and staff continuing to cite the highest levels of stress and workload pressure in years, and wellbeing remains at an all-time low, despite more support and interventions being made available across education. So many trusts and schools will be striving throughout 2024 to adapt and invest in order to be an employer of choice and ensure working in education is seen as a great profession and sector to work within.
Closing the disadvantage gap: A recently published report from EPI showed that pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds experience an attainment gap (relative to their more affluent peers) equivalent to 19 months of learning by the time they sit their GCSEs. Two fifths of this gap has already appeared by the age of 5. Closing this gap is something that education has been focused on for years and clearly needs continued attention and investment if we are to make more progress and ensure that background and socio-economic status is not a determinant to life chances. Linked to this, we need (and want) to do more for our children and young people with SEND and/or who need alternative provision, but yet the funding is such that it’s severely limiting what we can do. This year ahead needs to see more investment in SEND and AP and we know trust leaders remain focused on ensuring it continues to be a priority area.
Attendance, behaviour and safeguarding: In order to learn, pupils need to be in school and they need to feel safe and secure. We continue to face huge challenges around attendance, behaviour and safeguarding across the sector, frustrating so many who want to make a difference to this generation. Absence from education is now one of the most pressing issues facing England’s education system – persistent absence (missing more than 10% of sessions) has increased from 13% to 24% (EPI, December 2023). There are deep seated and complex causes underpinning why some schools and trusts are experiencing significant challenges in these areas. Yet, with new research and guidance coming out regularly to help and inform, 2024 presents an opportunity to continue – through collaborative learning and sharing of ideas and best practice – the hard work going into improving attendance, behaviour and safeguarding.
Building belonging, inclusiveness and connectedness: Recent research commissioned by the DfE into how schools narrow attainment gaps between ethnic groups found that fostering a sense of belonging, connectedness and inclusiveness were frequently cited by trust and school leaders as effective approaches to supporting attainment. The research is clear (and extensive beyond this report cited as an example) that focusing on creating this culture has huge benefits for pupils, communities and staff. As our understanding and conversations around this grow, we would expect 2024 to be the year of building the momentum and awareness around the role this plays in every aspect of education.
“we are seeing more trusts think about the culture of accountability locally, and how pure accountability to communities, parents, staff and pupils provides a balance and a much more formative approach to organisational leadership and improvement”
Embracing the growing role of technology: Technology is ever growing in its reach and impact across our lives – whether that’s in a work, learning or social capacity. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a huge and fast-moving topic and the implications it has for teaching, learning and socialising is huge. In November 2023, the DfE shared a summary of responses to its call for evidence on the use of generative artificial intelligence in education, finding both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities included freeing up teacher time, providing additional educational support, including for pupils with SEND and EAL. However, concerns included over-reliance on GenAI tools (among pupils), academic misconduct, and data protection and privacy risks. Some also raised the potential for GenAI to exacerbate the “digital divide” and the educational attainment gap, noting that some pupils do not have access to prerequisites to use this technology such as devices or stable internet. And this is just one report in amongst many around the themes of technology and AI. It is clear that keeping ahead of the trends (not constantly playing catch up) is going to be critical for all trust leaders over 2024 as we see AI use expand and technology as a whole continue to evolve.
Pure accountability: 2023 will no doubt be remembered for the calls to reform, or at least to shift the balance away from, a very high stakes, top-down accountability system. Whilst what happens nationally is, again, mostly out of our hands, we are seeing more trusts think about the culture of accountability locally, and how pure accountability to communities, parents, staff and pupils provides a balance and a much more formative approach to organisational leadership and improvement. It is encouraging to see trusts and schools not reacting by resisting accountability (it is fundamentally important), but using their freedoms and their board’s ability to also define success by opening themselves up to those who really matter the most in the system. There will undoubtedly be much discussion about national accountability reform, but for trusts, this culture change is already happening locally and we are excited to see it further developed in collaboration with and shaped alongside those it is there to serve. And, critically, delivered with sensitivity to the complex role and pressures of leaders and staff in education.
And there are many more priorities we could list of course. The need to tackle global issues such as environmental sustainability, poverty, and equality and diversity will also only grow in importance over the coming year. The point here is around how the importance of staying laser-like in keeping our attention on what makes a difference and rooted in our core purpose, cannot be overstated. We know there are areas of our work that will present challenges and opportunities for us in education regardless of the climate around us and therefore, when looking ahead to 2024, let’s keep focused on these ‘knowns’. But, in saying that, stay cognisant, as ever, of some of those potential ‘unknowns’ that may try to move us off course.
“The point here is around how the importance of staying laser-like in keeping our attention on what makes a difference and rooted in our core purpose, cannot be overstated.”
Steady the ship
Speaking of straying off course… This is likely to be our biggest challenge and our biggest opportunity in the year ahead. How we manage to ‘steady the ship’ and offer stability during times of turbulence will be every bit as important, if not more important, than keeping our focus on the constants. Our ability to stay true to ourselves and to our organisation’s mission, vision and values will be essential.
I would even go a step further by saying that ‘keeping the ship steady and on course’ is going to be the most valuable thing we can do for our staff, pupils and communities over this next year. It sounds simple, perhaps even too simple, but trust me when I say that the thing people will welcome most from those who lead them in the year ahead, will be stability, continuity and safety. This won’t be something that comes from government, the economy or the wider world, and so it must come from you, as the people our staff, pupils and communities look to most when things are tough and uncertain. We saw how people looked to schools and trusts for this stability during Covid and whilst this year is (hopefully) unlikely to entail another pandemic, the impact of continuing political and social instability can still be significant for our organisations and people. We can, to a meaningful extent, limit the impact.
Many of you will be familiar with the work of Rotter (1954) around our locus of control. The concept that we have some things that are within our control (internal factors) and others that are outside of it (external factors). Our belief system about how much or how little control we have in our lives can significantly shape our outlook. Generally speaking (and I am very much synthesising a huge body of research in this space), those who are able to focus more on the things they can control and less on the things they can’t, find better balance and contentment.
I mention this as it brings together nicely our two points here around identifying which education priorities ‘stay the same’ (and require our continued attention), and being able to offer some stability. When we focus on what we can affect (those education priorities that remain unwaveringly important) and let go of what we can’t, we can offer stability. If we are swayed too much by the changing climate around us, we cannot. The two go hand in hand.
“When we focus on what we can affect (those education priorities that remain unwaveringly important) and let go of what we can’t, we can offer stability.”
Staying fixed to our ‘true north’ in education is how we achieve this focus and stability. When we know our decisions, our energy and our leadership is rooted solidly in doing the best we possibly can for children, young people, communities and staff, we do the job that we are ultimately here to do. This is something we have referred to a lot at Forum Strategy as ‘pure accountability’. When we have our accountability dial set straight, then a change in government, social unrest and economic crises impact us of course, but they do not stop us from carrying on doing what we can, as best we can.
And so, my message for the year ahead is quite a simple one. Let’s do more of the same (where we know something is working well), stay focused on what matters and let’s offer those we serve that stable place to turn to when things around us feel chaotic.
No-one better for the job
And in ending, I want to emphasise my confidence in you as trust leaders across the country. There is no-one better placed for ‘keeping the ship steady’ and making sure the system stays focused on the right and the important things. You have been doing this for years now, decades in some cases, and you will continue to do this for years and decades to come.
And you are not alone. At Forum Strategy, we remain alongside you. Here to ensure you have the connections, the support and the development that you need. As I have said previously at our CEO conferences, we have been here for the last 10 years alongside you as trust leaders and we will remain so in the years ahead. Your constant, your stability, and your network. Whatever the weather.
Alice Gregson is CEO of Forum Strategy. You can apply to join our National CEO, COO or Education Executives networks at https://forumstrategy.org/our-networks/